The Baltimore Ravens are set to host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thanksgiving NightM&T Bank Stadium — a rare prime-time holiday showdown that feels more like a coronation than a game. The Ravens, riding a five-game winning streak and sitting at 6-5, enter as 7.5-point favorites over a Bengals team reeling from four straight losses and clinging to a 3-8 record. It’s not just about division standings — it’s about momentum, pride, and the quiet unraveling of a season that once held promise.
A Team Rebuilding, a Team Rising
The Bengals’ struggles aren’t new. Their offense averages just 22.5 points per game, ranks 31st in rushing, and hasn’t sustained a drive longer than three minutes in their last three contests. Against the New England Patriots last week, they trailed 20-7 at halftime and never recovered, despite a late touchdown that felt more like a consolation than a comeback. Quarterback Jake Browning has been inconsistent, and the offensive line — already battered — lost left tackle La’el Collins to season-ending knee surgery two weeks ago. Their defense, once a strength, now gives up 27.4 points per game — the worst in the AFC North.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have transformed. After a 1-5 start that had fans questioning the coaching staff, they’ve become the NFL’s most disciplined team. Their offense doesn’t dazzle — it dominates. Derrick Henry, acquired in a midseason trade from Tennessee, has rushed for 871 yards and 9 touchdowns since Week 6. His presence changes everything. He doesn’t just gain yards; he eats clock, forces defenses to commit, and opens space for Lamar Jackson’s play-action magic.
Lamar Jackson: Efficiency Over Flash
Jackson’s stats — 1,595 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 66.7% completion rate — don’t scream MVP. But they scream control. Against the Jets on November 23, he threw for just 153 yards on 13-of-23, yet the Ravens won 23-10. Why? Because he didn’t need to be spectacular. Henry ran for 112 yards and two touchdowns in the third quarter. The defense forced a fumble with 1:47 left. Kicker Tyler Loop nailed three field goals. It was a masterclass in situational football — the kind that wins in December.
And Jackson? He’s playing with a sore ankle, but his decision-making has never been sharper. He’s not forcing throws. He’s not gambling. He’s managing the game like a veteran, not a 28-year-old superstar. That’s the twist: the Ravens don’t need him to be electric. They need him to be smart.
The Betting Trends Tell a Story
The numbers don’t lie. The Ravens have won their last 15 home games against AFC opponents coming off a loss. The Bengals? They’ve lost all 10 of their November games as underdogs since 2021. Seven of their last eight November games as underdogs against AFC North rivals have failed to cover the spread. And in this rivalry? The Ravens have won the last four matchups — three by double digits.
Oddsmakers are split slightly between platforms. DraftKings lists the Ravens as -7 (-110), while Fubo and other books go with -7.5. The over/under hovers at 51.5 — a number that feels high for this matchup. Winners and Whiners recommends the under by 5 units, citing both teams’ preference for methodical, time-consuming drives. The Bengals’ offense rarely moves quickly. The Ravens don’t need to. When Henry is in the game, the clock ticks like a metronome.
Why This Game Matters Beyond the Record
The AFC North is a four-team dogfight. The Ravens and Steelers are tied at 6-5. The Browns are 5-6. The Bengals? They’re 3.5 games back and fading fast. For Baltimore, a win here isn’t just about padding their record — it’s about sending a message to the rest of the division. They’re not just competitive anymore. They’re dangerous.
For Cincinnati, it’s a last chance to prove they’re not done. Their season is all but over, but a win on Thanksgiving — against their fiercest rival, in their opponent’s stadium — could spark something. A spark is all they need. A spark, and a quarterback who doesn’t throw four interceptions in a game.
But here’s the cold truth: the Bengals haven’t beaten the Ravens in Baltimore since 2020. And this Ravens team? They’re built for November. They’re built for cold weather. Built for physicality. Built for games where the scoreboard doesn’t explode — but the outcome never feels in doubt.
What’s Next?
If the Ravens win, they’ll be 7-5 and in firm control of the division race. Their next three games: at Miami, home vs. Cleveland, then a season finale against the Steelers. Win two of those, and they’re in. If they lose? The Steelers and Browns will have breathing room — and the Ravens’ playoff hopes become a long shot.
For the Bengals? Their schedule doesn’t get easier. They face the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers in their final four games. A win here would be a miracle. A loss? It could accelerate the rebuild — and possibly cost head coach Zac Taylor his job after the season.
Final Prediction
Expect a slow, grinding game. The Ravens will control the ball for over 35 minutes. Henry will average 5.2 yards per carry. Jackson will make one big throw — a 25-yard seam pass to Zay Flowers — but the real story will be the defense. The Bengals’ offensive line won’t hold up. The Ravens will force two turnovers. Tyler Loop will kick another field goal. And the final score? Something like 24-17. The Ravens cover. The under hits. And the Bengals? They’re left wondering what went wrong.
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury affected his performance?
Jackson’s ankle has limited his mobility, reducing his rushing yards to just 38 per game over the last five weeks — down from 52 earlier in the season. But he’s compensated with quicker reads and shorter throws. His completion rate has climbed to 66.7%, and he’s thrown only 3 interceptions since Week 7. He’s not running as much, but he’s making smarter decisions — which is exactly what the Ravens need.
Why are the Bengals struggling so badly on offense?
The Bengals’ offensive line has been decimated by injuries, especially at left tackle. Jake Browning lacks the arm strength to consistently stretch the field, and their top receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, has been held under 60 yards in three straight games. They’re averaging just 3.1 yards per rush — the lowest in the NFL — and their third-down conversion rate is 32%, dead last in the league.
What’s the historical edge between the Ravens and Bengals in this rivalry?
The Ravens have won 17 of the last 20 meetings, including the last four straight. They’ve outscored the Bengals 189-98 in those games. In Baltimore, the Ravens are 10-1 against Cincinnati since 2019. The Bengals’ last win in M&T Bank Stadium? November 2020 — a 27-24 overtime thriller. Since then, they’ve lost by an average of 14.3 points.
Is the under 51.5 a safe bet?
Yes — and the data backs it up. Five of the last six Ravens-Bengals games have gone under 51.5 points. The Ravens’ offense is methodical, averaging 28.9 minutes of possession per game. The Bengals’ offense averages 26.4 minutes — but often stalls. Combined, they’ve averaged just 44.7 points per game this season. The weather in Baltimore on Thanksgiving is expected to be 38°F with a 30% chance of light rain — not ideal for passing.
